Revisiting viral selection

This preproof from Nathan Grubaugh (Yale, PhD in microbiology, 2016), Bill Hanage (Harvard, PhD in epidemiology), and Angela Rasmussen (Columbia, PhD in microbiology, 2009) came across my desk. It’s about the spike protein variant that, as Bette Korber at Los Alamos demonstrated, has become the dominant strain of the coronavirus in the last couple of […]

Likely selection for D614G S

There’s some foolishness going around about this recent preprint from Los Alamos.   They’ve spotted several mutations in collected SARS2 sequences from around the world that look as though they may be under positive selection.  We’re going to look into one in particular, a D614G mutation in the spike protein.  This mutation looks as though it’s increasing […]

IHME projections are absurdly optimistic

The state-specific projections from IHME have been widely disseminated and used for federal, state, and hospital planning. For example, here’s an interview with one of the UW professors on the project describing how their projections are being used by the feds. They have done yeoman’s work in collecting appropriate data, but their actual model has […]

Selection pressure on prevalence of a dominant mutation

Suppose we have a dominant mutation in the population with some prevalence . That means that a fraction of the alleles at that locus in the population are our mutation, while the rest are wild-type. We’d like to know how that prevalence changes over time. Some of those changes will be random, but we can […]

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