One point that’s come up a couple of times is the expense of imposing serious infection controls. China probably lost hundreds of billions of dollars on controlling the outbreak in Wuhan. Let’s try to make a guess of how much it would cost us, and use that to figure out what the best path forward …
Continue reading “Epidemiological modeling – costs of controls”
A basic SIR model for the epidemic. Total population 327 million, with a single initiating infection. 12 day course of disease, initial R0 of 3.5 (as per the stats from China that Steve linked.) Assume 5% of cases are critical, 2% of those critical cases die with ICU care, 5% with general hospital care, and …
Suppose we have a dominant mutation in the population with some prevalence . That means that a fraction of the alleles at that locus in the population are our mutation, while the rest are wild-type. We’d like to know how that prevalence changes over time. Some of those changes will be random, but we can …
Continue reading “Selection pressure on prevalence of a dominant mutation”
Introduction What happens to a new mutation? Every person has some new mutations in their somatic genome, mostly caused by errors in DNA replication. They can pass that mutation on to their descendants. We know of a couple of historical mutations that look like they are all from a single common ancestor – for example, …
Arguably Wrong